Impact of the Alto al Fuego program on intentional homicides in México City

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Andrés Sumano


This article analyses the impact of the Alto al Fuego program in México City on intentional homicides. I used interrupted time series analysis  with control groups and synthetic control methods to analyze its impact. Results show that, despite a reduction in level and trend of  homicides in Álvaro Obregón district after the  implementation of the program, similar changes in other districts in México City indicate that  reductions could be caused by factors other than the program. Despite inconclusive results, the premises of focused deterrence interventions seem to hold for Latin American contexts like the Plateros area in México City.

Focused deterrence, intentional homicides, Alto al Fuego, violence, México

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Andrés Sumano , El Colegio de la Frontera Norte

Ph.D. in Public Policy from Tecnológico de Monterrey. He is currently a CONAHCYT Researcher for México at El Colegio de la Frontera Norte. He is a member of the National System of Researchers, level I. His current line of research is public policies on citizen security. Among her most recent publications are: as autor, “Gobernanza de la prevención social de la violencia y la delincuencia: El caso de Nuevo León”, Gestión y Política Pública, 31 (1), Ciudad de México, CIDE, pp. 159-185 (2022); “Disuasión focalizada como alternativa para reducir la violencia en México: Apuntes teóricos y experiencias relevantes”, Estudios de la Seguridad Ciudadana, Nuevo León, Universidad de Ciencias de la Seguridad del Estado de Nuevo León, 7 (6), pp. 161-174 (2023); and as co-author, “Impacto del proceso electoral 2021 en los homicidios dolosos en México: un análisis a través de series de tiempo interrumpidas”, Revista Criminalidad, 65 (2), Bogotá, Dirección de Investigación Criminal e Interpol –DIJIN– de la Policía Nacional de Colombia, pp. 71-85 (2023).